One month to go in this most dramatic of all presidential campaigns and it’s clear now that the tone of the McCain campaign is going to take a hard dive from inspiration to desperation, from the original message of “McCain as war hero” to a month of attack ads.
With the McCain campaign folding up its tents in Michigan, and the polls showing Obama making significant gains in the few remaining battleground states, including Florida, the McCain campaign has decided that it’s last, best remaining hope of winning is to go negative. How do we know? The McCain campaign is saying so. (See the links to news stories in following paragraphs.)
The New York Times said Saturday, “Senator John McCain is entering the final month of the presidential campaign with his prospects weakened by the nation’s deepening financial crisis and persistent doubts about his choice of running mate, but his game plan is clear: sow doubts about Senator Barack Obama by portraying him as liberal and unready to lead.” The Washington Post reported, “McCain’s only positive commercial, called “Original Mavericks,” has largely been taken off the air, according to Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political ads.”
Apparently, McCain is expected to hit pretty hard, and pretty low, in the Tuesday night’s debate. After that, the campaign plans to unleash a barrage of negative ads designed to create a massive dose of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) in voters from “middle America.”
A Preview from Palin
Here’s a preview of things to come from Sarah Palin yesterday. CNN reported that Palin made a reference to Obama’s supposed connection to William Ayers:
“This [Obama] is not a man who sees America as you and I do: as the greatest force for good in the world,” Palin said at a fundraising event in Colorado, according to a statement released by the McCain-Palin campaign. “This is someone who sees American as imperfect enough to pal around with terrorists who targeted their own country.” The CNN story continues, “Several other publications [in addition to the New York Times], including the Washington Post, Time magazine, the Chicago Sun-Times, The New Yorker and The National Review, have debunked the idea that Obama and Ayers had a close relationship.”
(trackback: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/04/palin.obama/index.html?eref=rss_topstories)
What will we see from the McCain side?
We all know. Commercials with plenty of pictures of Obama looking like a scary, angry black man; loosely formed connections to criminals and unsavory characters (like Ayers), lies about his tax plan and health care plan, and more and more mentions of his middle name–Hussein. (Don’t laugh this one off. An intelligent woman who I’ve known and liked for many years told me she “absolutely could not vote for a man with the middle name “Hussein.’”) Everything will be from the Karl Rove playbook of filthy fighting.
Many ads will come from the McCain campaign, some will come from the Republican National Committee, but others will come from well-funded outside sources, including the same group that did the infamous (and effective) “swiftboat” campaign against Kerry. Those kinds of sources will provide the ugliest, and most headline-grabbing, ads. For every minute of airtime that groups like that can purchase to run smear ads, they’ll get much more airtime in news coverage of the spots.
If you’re like me and you shook your head, clenched your teeth, and got heartburn every time you saw commercials like the one saying Obama supported “teaching comprehensive sex education to kindergartners,” well, you’d better reach for the industrial strength Rolaids now because you ain’t seen nothing yet. Remember, by law Crest can’t say Colgate puts arsenic in its toothpaste because of truth-in-advertising laws, but these rules don’t apply to political ads. And both campaigns know (and take advantage of the fact) that most voters don’t bother to check the veracity of what candidates say in debates or in ads. They say they “don’t trust politicians” but they pretty much follow the line of, “well, if it’s on TV it must be true.” (Witness “professional wrestling.)
How will the Obama team react?
They’ve handled this quite well before. During the height of the Rev. Wright controversy Obama encouraged people not to fall for distractions, to focus on the issues, and, of course, he rose above the dirt with his speech on race relations. They’ll probably fight fire with fire with some negativity of their own (a response that Kerry and Gore never did right). The one thing we can be sure of is that the Obama team knows, and has known since the beginning, that the ugly would be coming in full force, and they have a strategy ready.
Here’s a link to an Obama campaign ad, released just this morning, announcing that McCain attacks are coming:
http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid1185304443/bctid1836680040
How to tell truth from fiction?
Visit the sites specifically set up to combat smears with fact-based answers to lies and misleading claims:
www.fightthesmears.com
If you need proof that the Obama campaign uses technology more effectively than any previous campaign, or that they are expecting, and quickly responding to, smears of all sorts, this site is it. This official campaign site is clear, concise, and an easy-to-use source for the facts. The format is perfect: They present the smear, the facts, and even an email forms to quickly send a ‘set the record straight” response to undecided voters who are concerned about an ad or claim they are hearing. There are videos, articles, all the tools needed.
www.factcheck.barackobama.com
A site for detailed fact checking about claims made by the McCain campaign in debates, interviews, etc.
watchdog@barackobama.com
An email address to forward smear emails received.
Two articles about the impending negativity:
“With a Month to Rally, McCain Hones His Attacks”
New York Times; October 4, 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/04/us/politics/04campaign.html
“McCain Plans Fiercer Strategy Against Obama”
Washington Post; October 4, 2008
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/03/AR2008100303738_pf.html
One quote: “McCain’s only positive commercial, called “Original Mavericks,” has largely been taken off the air, according to Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political ads.”
